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 Post subject: Re: ELECTION MAFIA - Day Three - MOTION
PostPosted: January 16th, 2017, 9:37 pm 
(MC SparkyAMS)
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Ok so, I'm just going to go out with this and say that I believe you both.

I'm going to ask that instead of voting komo for president, you vote Lander or Saten.

The reason for this is that I'm the "Radical" (I'd prefer to be called the presidential assassin but whatever)

If a president gets elected I get off them if I think they are scummy.

This is actually the true reason I voted Spiro for president and then didn't explain why, I was sorta suspicious of him and wanted to use my power before I get offed during a night phase.

But since that ended up going no where fast, and I thought Saten was innocent, I ditched that plan.

So anyway what I'm saying is if you vote for one of the two people you think is for sure Illuminati, I will off them.

If I end up unable to kill the president then you can assume me Illumi instead.

I can only kill them if they get elected though, and they'll probably kill me tonight if you don't now that I've said this.

I only have one bullet so this is a one time deal.

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 Post subject: Re: ELECTION MAFIA - Day Three - MOTION
PostPosted: January 16th, 2017, 10:34 pm 
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Sorry, Spiro! You were gunning for me and I simply couldn't run the risk of you getting elected today. You know how it is.

I'm glad to finally hear some power roles exist! The last three people who died were all vanilla Electors and that's super boring.

BTW Paidea, Sparky is like 0 for 15 games as Mafia or something.
[Sparky] If you ever ask yourself "what are the chances Sparky is Mafia"
[Sparky] It is literally statistically zero
So until proven wrong I disagree with ever killing him ever.

I would be more than happy to be your gracious and loving President, Sparky! Here, I'll get the ball rolling: Saten Ruiko

Also, Rory, Sparky, did you not read tau_xi's D2 posts? Where are your votes, or your planned votes?

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 Post subject: Re: ELECTION MAFIA - Day Three - MOTION
PostPosted: January 16th, 2017, 11:38 pm 
(MC SparkyAMS)
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Good point Saten, but you're too confusing so I'll go with

Landerpurex

for now.

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 Post subject: Re: ELECTION MAFIA - Day Three - MOTION
PostPosted: January 17th, 2017, 2:24 am 
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SparkyAMS wrote:
So anyway what I'm saying is if you vote for one of the two people you think is for sure Illuminati, I will off them.

If I end up unable to kill the president then you can assume me Illumi instead.

I can only kill them if they get elected though, and they'll probably kill me tonight if you don't now that I've said this.

I only have one bullet so this is a one time deal.


That's guaranteed to end this game with a town loss after tonight. If we elect an iloomenaughty, that'll give them the power to lynch. You will 200% be hanging from the rafters before anyone can even start to sue for a recount (if you are what you say you are). That's 1 town dead, 5 people remaining. At night they stab another. 2 town dead, 4 people remaining. That's 2 town vs 2 iloomenaughty. Game over, town loses.

Honestly our best bet would probably be to abstain and let Paidea work. If he checks one of the 3(Lander, Sparky, Saten) it should give us info to act. Either one comes back scum and we know who to lynch or thet come back inno and we know who the two scum are.

Though, if you guys think we should take that 66% chance of lynching an iloomenaughty, lets figure out who we are electing and who we want lynched BEFORE the actual election. That way the President knows who to target beforehand and they dont sit in the Oval Office for 12 hours just to flip a coin.

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 Post subject: Re: ELECTION MAFIA - Day Three - MOTION
PostPosted: January 17th, 2017, 4:09 am 
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Radical Assassin sounds like a Mafia or Third-party role :?:

I'm actually more comfortable no-lynching now. Abstain

Wanna hear what Lander has to say ofc.

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I concur. We must lynch him now for the sake of the metagame, we MUST teach people that they can't go around claiming "anniversary" and expect leniency. Topsummoner.


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 Post subject: Re: ELECTION MAFIA - Day Three - MOTION
PostPosted: January 17th, 2017, 5:37 am 
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Yeah, I'm not sold on the "Radical assasin" role. If it's 3rd party, then we have 2 Illuminati, 2 towns, and a 3rd party left. I won't put my vote in yet until I hear from Lander.

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 Post subject: Re: ELECTION MAFIA - Day Three - MOTION
PostPosted: January 17th, 2017, 5:41 am 
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Hmm, on second thoughts and re-reading, Sparky mentions that he has a choice on whether or not he gets to kill the president. For some reason I was under the impression that he shoots them the following night.

sparky wrote:
If a president gets elected I get off them IfI think they are scummy.

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 Post subject: Re: ELECTION MAFIA - Day Three - MOTION
PostPosted: January 17th, 2017, 9:18 am 
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There's a very clear and obvious reason I have been left alive. I look really bad after my altercation with tau yesterday.

Frankly I'm at a bit of a loss after 2 of my top 3 or 4 pegs as mafia have died off and Rory has made an uncontested claim. It seems the math makes sense.

All I can tell you is that I'm a regular elector. I think it goes without saying that I am GROSSLY inactive as mafia because frankly, I'm not good as scum. I certainly would not have carried on against tau the way I did if I were mafia.

I don't necessarily believe sparkys claim is town. Assassins are generally bad guys and to put things in perspective, his posts from yesterday could easily be viewed as fluff or trying to spread confusion.

I believe paidea's, I have no reason not to but I do not think there is any reason to abstain, because if Rory follows the wrong mafioso they have a free kill on paidea. Now that I think about it, has no one else considered the possibility that Rory could be a mafia stalker? And why would he come forward in his first post of the day, outing paidea like that? If he is mafia, that's as blatant a rolefish as can be. I'm not especially willing to test this theory with a lynch but on the off chance paidea lives through the night he should consider investigating Rory.

I believe the mafia to be between Rory, jaron, and sparky. I am most willing to lynch jaron today. I will vote for komoe or myself for mayor, because if sparky is mafia he could easily kill whoever is made president and that person should absolutely not be paidea or Rory.

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 Post subject: Re: ELECTION MAFIA - Day Three - MOTION
PostPosted: January 17th, 2017, 9:20 am 
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On that same note, in a variant like this, is it not possible that komoe is an investigation-immune godfather?

As tau said, Occam's razor, but we are clearly close to losing and we need to consider all possibilities.

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 Post subject: Re: ELECTION MAFIA - Day Three - MOTION
PostPosted: January 17th, 2017, 10:24 am 
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Landerpurex wrote:
Now that I think about it, has no one else considered the possibility that Rory could be a mafia stalker? .

Paidea did, his first post today:

Paidea wrote:
Since you claimed Tracker, it's probably even less likely there's a Doctor or Bodyguard out there as that would make the Town too powerful, unless the Mafia has some really strong powers. Of course, it's possible that you're actually a Stalker, but that's up for discussion.


Landerpurex wrote:
And why would he come forward in his first post of the day, outing paidea like that?

As I said in the first post, because of tau's suspicion. I don't think he would've been the only one wanting to know more about me, if he was still alive.

Landerpurex wrote:
As tau said, Occam's razor, but we are clearly close to losing and we need to consider all possibilities.

I agree. I think I'll ignore the fact that Saten didn't go anywhere night 1, the only thing it's telling me is that he isn't a power role. His first sentence today: "Sorry, Spiro! You were gunning for me and I simply couldn't run the risk of you getting elected today. You know how it is." But Saten has been confusing all game

ONE other thing, I find it hard to believe that Town would have more than 2 power roles. Sparky revealed himself as a "Radical" under no visible pressure, except maybe for the fact he lynched a townie over another suspected member of the mafia.

My suspicion is between Sparky and perhaps Jaron.

I can agree with abstaining tonight.

Abstain.

I'll track either Lander or Sparky tonight. If Paidea is correct in saying that Komoe's town, I should only need to follow one of these targets to get a much clearer picture, I hope.

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 Post subject: Re: ELECTION MAFIA - Day Three - MOTION
PostPosted: January 17th, 2017, 10:39 am 
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Landerpurex wrote:
On that same note, in a variant like this, is it not possible that komoe is an investigation-immune godfather?

As tau said, Occam's razor, but we are clearly close to losing and we need to consider all possibilities.


That role is a possibility, I guess. But if it is present in this game, it is not I.

Abstaining is the only 100% protown option here. If Rory follows the wrong person and Paidea dies, then we are just right back to this point, not really any worse. Abstaining gives us another day and a chance that one of the mafia get caught. If we lynch the wrong person, we will lose. And frankly, there is no one I'm for sure is mafia.

Also, speaking of variant roles: What do you the chances are that Saten is registered to a third party?

Abstain

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 Post subject: Re: ELECTION MAFIA - Day Three - MOTION
PostPosted: January 17th, 2017, 11:29 am 
(MC SparkyAMS)
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Yeah.

I'm not mafia

Why would the mafia get an extra kill role? Get real.

If you think komo is for sure town, get him in.
I promise I won't shoot him, like he said which sucks, he can kill me before I kill him anyway.

But I'm not wasting a day vote.

Komoe

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 Post subject: Re: ELECTION MAFIA - Day Three - MOTION
PostPosted: January 17th, 2017, 1:24 pm 
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I really am not understanding at all the point of abstaining. The odds of a kill are 100%. The odds of Rory following the correct mafia member range somewhere between 33% and 50%. Those are the same odds for lynching someone today as mafia.

What you guys seem to not understand is tomorrow we will not have the benefit of paideas input.

I'd rather lynch today but it seems I am vastly outnumbered. komoe

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 Post subject: Re: ELECTION MAFIA - Day Three - MOTION
PostPosted: January 17th, 2017, 1:25 pm 
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Everyone who's posted seems to agree that it is likely jaron is mafia. So WHY wouldn't we lynch him?

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 Post subject: Re: ELECTION MAFIA - Day Three - MOTION
PostPosted: January 17th, 2017, 2:14 pm 
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Actually I just realized we are at a bit of an impasse. If Sparky is scum, Town loses regardless. Either he kills the President and then the Mafia kill at Night, or we elect him and he mislynches a townie.

So the only way to play to win is to assume Sparky is Town, elect someone, and have them lynch either Lander or Jaron.

Komoe

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Bloodypurex wrote:
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I concur. We must lynch him now for the sake of the metagame, we MUST teach people that they can't go around claiming "anniversary" and expect leniency. Topsummoner.


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 Post subject: Re: ELECTION MAFIA - Day Three - MOTION
PostPosted: January 17th, 2017, 2:56 pm 
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Landerpurex wrote:
What you guys seem to not understand is tomorrow we will not have the benefit of paideas input.


And I'm going to say that we will have his input. Paidea will live through the night, believe me. So when you say that it'll be a 33% - 50% chance of Rory following the correct person, thats on top of Paidea's 100% of investigation.

I dont want an electiion because I am not sure Sparky's allegiance is where he says it is, and I am counting way too many town power roles.

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 Post subject: Re: ELECTION MAFIA - Day Three - MOTION
PostPosted: January 17th, 2017, 7:10 pm 
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We do run the risk of losing early if we elect someone and they get the wrong person. If we don't elect, and then someone dies, that gives us one more day, doesn't it?

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 Post subject: Re: ELECTION MAFIA - Day Three - MOTION
PostPosted: January 17th, 2017, 7:19 pm 
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Rory wrote:
We do run the risk of losing early if we elect someone and they get the wrong person. If we don't elect, and then someone dies, that gives us one more day, doesn't it?


I'm not putting my stock in night actions that are not absolute. I'd rather chance it during the day, the old fashioned way.

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 Post subject: Re: ELECTION MAFIA - Day Three - MOTION
PostPosted: January 17th, 2017, 7:20 pm 
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Paidea wrote:
Actually I just realized we are at a bit of an impasse. If Sparky is scum, Town loses regardless. Either he kills the President and then the Mafia kill at Night, or we elect him and he mislynches a townie.

So the only way to play to win is to assume Sparky is Town, elect someone, and have them lynch either Lander or Jaron.

Komoe

He can't be elected today, for what it's worth.

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 Post subject: Re: ELECTION MAFIA - Day Three - MOTION
PostPosted: January 17th, 2017, 9:15 pm 
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Rory wrote:
We do run the risk of losing early if we elect someone and they get the wrong person. If we don't elect, and then someone dies, that gives us one more day, doesn't it?


Yes. If we dont elect, only one person max dies. That leaves town with a slim majority still and one more day.

If we elect, two people die, three max. Lynch + night kill and if sparky isnt town aligned with that role of his, three with his assassination.

There is no reason to elect today. There is no reason for lander to be pushing this hard. If we dont elect tonight and one of us dies, we still have the numbers to elect (ie Rory, Paidea, and Lander), and have another use of invest roles to fully determine the scum.


But something tells me Lander might have different plans.

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